Right to Trial & FDA Upgrade Act

A universal right to try, with evidence. The Act authorizes commercial access after initial human safety testing and makes every covered treatment use teach us something.
Author
Affiliation

Mike P. Sinn

Keywords

right-to-trial, fda-upgrade, clinical-trials, drug-development, healthcare-reform, regulatory, patient-rights, open-data, decentralized-trials

Every patient gets the right to try. Every treatment teaches us something.

Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,

1 TITLE I: PURPOSE AND DEFINITIONS

1.1 SEC. 101. SHORT TITLE

This Act may be cited as the “Right to Trial and FDA Upgrade Act.”

1.2 SEC. 102. PURPOSE

The purpose of this Act is to establish a universal right to seek investigational treatment after initial human safety testing while protecting voluntary supply, informed consent, reasonable safety standards, and the production of useful evidence.

1.3 SEC. 103. FINDINGS

Congress finds the following:

  1. Existing federal expanded-access and right-to-try pathways leave many patients and conditions outside their practical reach.
  2. Access may help the patient receiving a treatment. Standardized outcome collection can also help every later patient facing the same decision.
  3. Permitting willing suppliers to earn revenue after initial human safety testing can finance further investigation of treatments that could not otherwise pay for phase 2 or phase 3 trials.
  4. Pragmatic and decentralized trials can study treatments in routine care and include patients who would not qualify for conventional trials.
  5. Federal law should protect access without promising that a treatment works, requiring anyone to supply it, or requiring anyone else to pay for it.

1.4 SEC. 104. DEFINITIONS

In this Act:

  1. Eligible investigational treatment means a drug, biological product, device, diagnostic, procedure, behavioral intervention, or combination of them that:
    1. has completed a phase 1 clinical investigation or has a comparable human safety record documented by a licensed medical facility or recognized research institution and found sufficient by the qualified provider and reviewing ethics board to characterize initial safety and dosing for the treatment and route of administration;
    2. is not subject to an active clinical hold applicable to the proposed use;
    3. is manufactured, stored, prescribed, and administered under applicable quality and safety standards; and
    4. is supplied by a person legally entitled and willing to manufacture or provide it.
  2. Condition includes a disease, injury, disability, symptom, functional impairment, or biological process associated with aging.
  3. Qualified provider means a licensed health professional acting within the professional’s lawful scope of practice.
  4. Right-to-trial protocol means a prospectively registered plan for providing an eligible investigational treatment and collecting the minimum evidence required by section 203.
  5. Qualified evidence system means a public, nonprofit, or private registry or platform that satisfies section 301.
  6. Secretary means the Secretary of Health and Human Services, acting through the Commissioner of Food and Drugs where appropriate.

2 TITLE II: UNIVERSAL RIGHT TO TRY AND LEARN

2.1 SEC. 201. RIGHT TO ACCESS

  1. In General. A patient may seek, purchase, and use an eligible investigational treatment for any condition under a right-to-trial protocol when a qualified provider recommends the treatment and a willing supplier agrees to provide it.

  2. Independent Federal Pathway. Compliance with this Act is an independent federal pathway and does not require an investigational new drug application, investigational device exemption, individual expanded-access authorization, premarket approval, clearance, or licensure. Solely for treatment provided under this Act:

  1. a drug or biological product is exempt from sections 502(f), 503(b)(4), 505(a), and 505(i) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, section 351(a) of the Public Health Service Act, and parts 50, 56, and 312 of title 21, Code of Federal Regulations, except that the labeling requirements in section 312.6 continue to apply;
  2. a device or diagnostic is exempt from sections 501(f)(1)(B), 502(f), 502(o), 510(k), 513(f)(2), 515, and 520(g) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and parts 50, 56, and 812 of title 21, Code of Federal Regulations, except that the labeling requirements in section 812.5 continue to apply; and
  3. the restrictions on prior charging authorization, cost recovery, promotion, and commercial distribution in sections 312.7, 312.8, and 812.7 of title 21, Code of Federal Regulations, do not prohibit truthful promotion, commercial distribution, or the price permitted by section 205.
  1. Protections Retained. Nothing in subsection (b) exempts a person from applicable manufacturing and quality standards, prohibitions on false or misleading statements, or the consent, ethical review, evidence, safety-reporting, and liability requirements of this Act. No person may represent an eligible investigational treatment as safe or effective beyond what reliable evidence supports.

  2. No Compelled Participation. Except for the duty under section 203(g) to record the disposition of a formal request received through a qualified evidence system, nothing in this Act requires a manufacturer, provider, facility, ethics board, evidence system, insurer, employer, or other person to manufacture, recommend, provide, administer, review, record, or pay for a treatment.

  3. Clinical Judgment. A provider may decline or discontinue treatment when the provider reasonably believes that the expected risks exceed the expected benefits for the patient.

2.3 SEC. 203. EVERY TREATMENT USE GENERATES EVIDENCE

  1. Prospective Registration. Before treatment begins, the right-to-trial protocol must be registered with a qualified evidence system and identify the treatment, condition, eligibility criteria, outcomes, follow-up period, safety-monitoring plan, and the supplier, sponsor, provider, or evidence-system operator responsible for evidence submission.

  2. Minimum Evidence. Subject to subsection (c), the responsible party must collect and submit the following information for every treatment use:

  1. baseline condition and relevant patient characteristics;
  2. treatment, dose, duration, and important concurrent treatments;
  3. clinical and patient-reported outcomes;
  4. discontinuations and serious adverse events; and
  5. the completeness and timing of follow-up.
  1. Follow-Up Completeness. Each protocol must prespecify a minimum follow-up schedule and completion target and must obtain at least one post-treatment outcome record unless the patient withdraws, dies before the scheduled assessment, or cannot be reached after the protocol’s required attempts. For each exception, the responsible party must submit the reason, the dates and methods of attempted contact, and the patient’s last known clinical status. The evidence system shall publish protocol-level completion rates, and the reviewing board may require a corrective plan for material failure to meet the prespecified target without good cause.

  2. Reliable Claims. A protocol making a causal claim about treatment effects must use randomization or another adequate comparator when feasible and a prespecified analysis. Results without an adequate comparator must be clearly labeled observational and may not be represented as proving causation.

  3. Public Results. A qualified evidence system shall publish timely, deidentified aggregate results, including negative and inconclusive results, in a searchable and machine-readable form. Individually identifiable information may not be publicly disclosed.

  4. Safety Reporting. Serious and unexpected adverse events must be reported promptly to the supplier, reviewing ethics board, qualified evidence system, and Secretary under timelines established by the Secretary.

  5. Access and Market Records. A formal request for treatment under this Act must be submitted or recorded through a qualified evidence system and assigned a persistent identifier. For every formal request, the system shall record the request date, treatment and condition, patient subgroup characteristics specified in the evaluation protocol, each supplier and provider disposition and stated reason for refusal or withdrawal, price offered, amount agreed and paid, payer category, any reported supply limitation, and whether and when treatment began. A supplier or provider receiving a formal request through the system shall promptly submit its disposition and the required information in its possession, whether or not treatment begins. The system shall link an accepted request to the treatment evidence record, preserve the complete nonpublic records for audit, and provide the Comptroller General access necessary for the evaluation under section 403(c). Public reporting must use deidentified aggregate data and may not disclose individually identifiable information or protected trade secrets.

2.4 SEC. 204. INDEPENDENT ETHICAL AND SAFETY REVIEW

  1. Review. Before enrollment, a right-to-trial protocol must be reviewed by an institutional review board under applicable federal law or by an independent ethics review board meeting equivalent minimum standards established by the Secretary.

  2. Scope. Review shall address the consent, risk disclosures, monitoring plan, evidence plan, conflicts of interest, and protection of patients unable to consent for themselves.

  3. Efficient Review. One reviewing board may approve a protocol used by multiple providers, facilities, or States. Review may be remote. A board may charge a disclosed fee.

  4. No Treatment Guarantee. Approval of a protocol does not represent that the treatment is safe, effective, or likely to benefit a particular patient.

  5. Protocol Suspension. The Secretary or reviewing ethics board may immediately suspend new enrollment or further treatment under a right-to-trial protocol when credible evidence indicates an unreasonable and significant risk of illness or injury. The Secretary may also suspend distribution under the protocol when necessary to prevent serious harm. The suspension notice must state the grounds and the conditions for resuming the protocol. A provider may continue only the care reasonably necessary to taper, withdraw, or stabilize a patient safely.

2.5 SEC. 205. PAYMENT AND FINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITY

  1. Negotiated Price. A willing supplier and patient may freely negotiate payment. The price may include profit and is not limited to direct or indirect cost.

  2. Price Disclosure. No patient may be charged more than the amount disclosed at consent unless the patient separately consents to an additional good or service.

  3. Payment Sources. A patient, insurer, charity, employer, research sponsor, or other person may pay any portion of the price. Nothing in this Act creates an entitlement to payment or reimbursement.

  4. Surviving Family. A patient’s heirs or other family members are not liable for an unpaid treatment obligation unless they separately agreed to assume it before treatment.

3 TITLE III: COMPETING EVIDENCE SYSTEMS AND FDA USE

3.1 SEC. 301. QUALIFIED EVIDENCE SYSTEMS

  1. Qualification. The Secretary shall publish minimum, technology-neutral standards for the security, privacy, auditability, interoperability, data export, conflict disclosure, safety reporting, and public reporting of qualified evidence systems. The standards must provide protections at least equivalent to the privacy, security, and breach-notification requirements in parts 160 and 164 of title 45, Code of Federal Regulations, and the electronic-record requirements in part 11 of title 21, Code of Federal Regulations, where applicable.

  2. Open Entry. A public agency, nonprofit organization, academic institution, or private company may operate a qualified evidence system by publicly certifying compliance with the published standards. The Secretary may audit an operator and revoke its qualification for material noncompliance after notice and an opportunity to cure, except when immediate action is necessary to prevent serious harm.

  3. Fees. An operator may charge disclosed fees to suppliers, sponsors, providers, facilities, or patients. Nothing in this Act limits a lawful profit or requires a government-operated platform.

  4. Portability. A qualified evidence system must let authorized participants export protocol and evidence records in a documented, commonly usable format.

  5. No Prescribed Architecture. The Secretary may not require a particular software vendor, hosting model, source-code license, distributed ledger, artificial-intelligence system, or governance structure.

3.2 SEC. 302. USE OF EVIDENCE

  1. Fit-for-Purpose Review. The Secretary may use fit-for-purpose evidence generated under this Act to support approval, clearance, licensure, a new indication, labeling, safety action, or a postmarket requirement.

  2. Method Neutrality. The Secretary may not reject evidence solely because a study is pragmatic, decentralized, adaptive, conducted in routine care, or uses real-world data. The weight given to the evidence must reflect its design, data quality, uncertainty, and risk of bias.

  3. Regulatory Guidance. Not later than 180 days after enactment, the Secretary shall publish guidance describing how sponsors may use evidence generated under this Act in regulatory submissions.

3.3 SEC. 303. PUBLIC LEARNING

  1. Interoperable Catalog. The Secretary shall maintain or designate a public catalog through which patients, providers, and researchers can find registered protocols and aggregate results across qualified evidence systems.

  2. International Evidence. A qualified evidence system may accept compatible evidence generated outside the United States when collection and use comply with applicable law.

  3. No Ownership Mandate. Nothing in this Act transfers ownership of a patient’s identifiable health data or requires public disclosure of trade secrets, manufacturing information, or identifiable health information.

4 TITLE IV: NONINTERFERENCE AND IMPLEMENTATION

4.1 SEC. 401. FEDERAL AND STATE NONINTERFERENCE

  1. Government Action Prohibited. No federal, State, or local officer may prohibit or materially burden treatment that complies with this Act solely because the treatment lacks premarket approval, clearance, or licensure for the proposed use.

  2. Professional Discipline. A licensing board or government agency may not revoke, suspend, refuse to renew, or otherwise restrict a professional or facility license solely because of good-faith participation in treatment complying with this Act.

  3. Generally Applicable Protections. A State may enforce generally applicable professional-licensing, facility, manufacturing, pharmacy, fraud, and safety laws that do not discriminate against eligible investigational treatment or defeat the rights created by this Act.

  4. Federal Programs. Participation in this Act alone may not be used to exclude a provider or facility from Medicare, Medicaid, or another federal health program.

4.2 SEC. 402. RESPONSIBILITY AND LIABILITY

  1. Good-Faith Participation. A person is not subject to civil, criminal, licensing, or administrative liability solely for good-faith participation in treatment complying with this Act while exercising reasonable care.

  2. Limits. Nothing in this Act limits liability for failure to exercise reasonable care, violation of applicable manufacturing standards, fraud, a false or misleading statement, reckless conduct, or willful misconduct.

  3. Safety Authority. Nothing in this Act limits the Secretary’s authority to investigate a safety signal, require safety reporting, impose or maintain a clinical hold where otherwise authorized, exercise the protocol-suspension authority in section 204(e), or act against conduct outside this Act.

4.3 SEC. 403. IMPLEMENTATION

  1. Rules. Not later than 180 days after enactment, the Secretary shall issue rules necessary to implement this Act. The access right in section 201 takes effect 180 days after enactment whether or not final rules have been issued. Until final rules take effect, an evidence system may qualify by certifying compliance with the express requirements of this Act and protections at least equivalent to parts 160 and 164 of title 45, Code of Federal Regulations, and part 11 of title 21, Code of Federal Regulations, whether or not those regulations would otherwise apply to the operator.

  2. Existing Resources. The Secretary shall use existing appropriations and may assess transparent, cost-based qualification fees. Nothing in this Act authorizes a new federal appropriation to purchase or subsidize treatment.

  3. Independent Evaluation.

  1. Preregistered plan. Before the access right in section 201 takes effect, the Comptroller General, in consultation with independent health economists, biostatisticians, patient representatives, and drug-development researchers, shall publish a timestamped evaluation protocol and baseline in a permanent public repository. The initial protocol shall remain available. Every later amendment must be logged publicly with its date, reason, and affected analyses. The protocol shall identify outcomes, comparison groups, statistical methods, subgroup analyses, and criteria for interpreting success or failure.
  2. Access and market outcomes. The Comptroller General shall report annually on requests, enrollments, supplier refusals, posted prices, payments, treatment supply, supplier entry, market concentration, and participation by patient subgroup.
  3. Health and evidence outcomes. The annual report shall include mortality, condition-specific quality-adjusted life years, patient-reported outcomes, displacement of effective care, serious adverse events, follow-up completeness, missingness, protocol deviations, treatment-condition pairs reaching prespecified evidence thresholds, time to reliable answers, independent replications, and regulatory uses of the evidence.
  4. Methods and uncertainty. Reports shall distinguish randomized from observational evidence, identify biases and spillovers, publish uncertainty intervals and sensitivity analyses, and release reproducible code and nonidentifiable data to the maximum extent permitted by law.
  5. Economic evaluation. Public implementation cost, real treatment resources, patient financial burden, treatment prices, medical spending, and net health shall be reported separately. Benefits from earlier access, faster discovery, medical-cost changes, research-cost changes, and option value shall be defined as mutually exclusive channels before aggregation. The evaluation must reconcile interactions and overlap among the channels, and non-additive or overlapping benefits may not be summed.
  6. Counterfactual. The evaluation shall compare outcomes under this Act with the best available counterfactual, including expanded access, the existing federal Right to Try Act, accelerated approval, off-label treatment, and contemporaneous medical progress unrelated to this Act.
  1. Severability. If any provision of this Act is held invalid, the remainder shall not be affected.

4.3.1 End of Act.

1.
NIH Common Fund. NIH pragmatic trials: Minimal funding despite 30x cost advantage. NIH Common Fund: HCS Research Collaboratory https://commonfund.nih.gov/hcscollaboratory (2025)
The NIH Pragmatic Trials Collaboratory funds trials at $500K for planning phase, $1M/year for implementation-a tiny fraction of NIH’s budget. The ADAPTABLE trial cost $14 million for 15,076 patients (= $929/patient) versus $420 million for a similar traditional RCT (30x cheaper), yet pragmatic trials remain severely underfunded. PCORnet infrastructure enables real-world trials embedded in healthcare systems, but receives minimal support compared to basic research funding. Additional sources: https://commonfund.nih.gov/hcscollaboratory | https://pcornet.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/ADAPTABLE_Lay_Summary_21JUL2025.pdf | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5604499/
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2.
NIH. Antidepressant clinical trial exclusion rates. Zimmerman et al. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26276679/ (2015)
Mean exclusion rate: 86.1% across 158 antidepressant efficacy trials (range: 44.4% to 99.8%) More than 82% of real-world depression patients would be ineligible for antidepressant registration trials Exclusion rates increased over time: 91.4% (2010-2014) vs. 83.8% (1995-2009) Most common exclusions: comorbid psychiatric disorders, age restrictions, insufficient depression severity, medical conditions Emergency psychiatry patients: only 3.3% eligible (96.7% excluded) when applying 9 common exclusion criteria Only a minority of depressed patients seen in clinical practice are likely to be eligible for most AETs Note: Generalizability of antidepressant trials has decreased over time, with increasingly stringent exclusion criteria eliminating patients who would actually use the drugs in clinical practice Additional sources: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26276679/ | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26164052/ | https://www.wolterskluwer.com/en/news/antidepressant-trials-exclude-most-real-world-patients-with-depression
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3.
GiveWell. GiveWell cost per life saved for top charities (2024). GiveWell: Top Charities https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities
General range: $3,000-$5,500 per life saved (GiveWell top charities) Helen Keller International (Vitamin A): $3,500 average (2022-2024); varies $1,000-$8,500 by country Against Malaria Foundation: $5,500 per life saved New Incentives (vaccination incentives): $4,500 per life saved Malaria Consortium (seasonal malaria chemoprevention):  $3,500 per life saved VAS program details:  $2 to provide vitamin A supplements to child for one year Note: Figures accurate for 2024. Helen Keller VAS program has wide country variation ($1K-$8.5K) but $3,500 is accurate average. Among most cost-effective interventions globally Additional sources: https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities | https://www.givewell.org/charities/helen-keller-international | https://ourworldindata.org/cost-effectiveness
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4.
World Health Organization. WHO global health estimates 2024. World Health Organization https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates (2024)
Comprehensive mortality and morbidity data by cause, age, sex, country, and year Global mortality:  55-60 million deaths annually Lives saved by modern medicine (vaccines, cardiovascular drugs, oncology):  12M annually (conservative aggregate) Leading causes of death: Cardiovascular disease (17.9M), Cancer (10.3M), Respiratory disease (4.0M) Note: Baseline data for regulatory mortality analysis. Conservative estimate of pharmaceutical impact based on WHO immunization data (4.5M/year from vaccines) + cardiovascular interventions (3.3M/year) + oncology (1.5M/year) + other therapies. Additional sources: https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortality-and-global-health-estimates
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5.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPI inflation calculator. (2024)
CPI-U (1980): 82.4 CPI-U (2024): 313.5 Inflation multiplier (1980-2024): 3.80× Cumulative inflation: 280.48% Average annual inflation rate: 3.08% Note: Official U.S. government inflation data using Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). Additional sources: https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
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6.
ACS CAN. Clinical trial patient participation rate. ACS CAN: Barriers to Clinical Trial Enrollment https://www.fightcancer.org/policy-resources/barriers-patient-enrollment-therapeutic-clinical-trials-cancer
Only 3-5% of adult cancer patients in US receive treatment within clinical trials About 5% of American adults have ever participated in any clinical trial Oncology: 2-3% of all oncology patients participate Contrast: 50-60% enrollment for pediatric cancer trials (<15 years old) Note:  20% of cancer trials fail due to insufficient enrollment; 11% of research sites enroll zero patients Additional sources: https://www.fightcancer.org/policy-resources/barriers-patient-enrollment-therapeutic-clinical-trials-cancer | https://hints.cancer.gov/docs/Briefs/HINTS_Brief_48.pdf
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7.
ScienceDaily. Global prevalence of chronic disease. ScienceDaily: GBD 2015 Study https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/06/150608081753.htm (2015)
2.3 billion individuals had more than five ailments (2013) Chronic conditions caused 74% of all deaths worldwide (2019), up from 67% (2010) Approximately 1 in 3 adults suffer from multiple chronic conditions (MCCs) Risk factor exposures: 2B exposed to biomass fuel, 1B to air pollution, 1B smokers Projected economic cost: $47 trillion by 2030 Note: 2.3B with 5+ ailments is more accurate than "2B with chronic disease." One-third of all adults globally have multiple chronic conditions Additional sources: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/06/150608081753.htm | https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10830426/ | https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6214883/
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8.
C&EN. Annual number of new drugs approved globally:  50. C&EN https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/50-new-drugs-received-FDA/103/i2 (2025)
50 new drugs approved annually Additional sources: https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/50-new-drugs-received-FDA/103/i2 | https://www.fda.gov/drugs/development-approval-process-drugs/novel-drug-approvals-fda
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9.
IQVIA Report. Global trial capacity. IQVIA Report: Clinical Trial Subjects Number Drops Due to Decline in COVID-19 Enrollment https://gmdpacademy.org/news/iqvia-report-clinical-trial-subjects-number-drops-due-to-decline-in-covid-19-enrollment/
1.9M participants annually (2022, post-COVID normalization from 4M peak in 2021) Additional sources: https://gmdpacademy.org/news/iqvia-report-clinical-trial-subjects-number-drops-due-to-decline-in-covid-19-enrollment/
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10.
Nature Medicine. Drug repurposing rate ( 30%). Nature Medicine https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03233-x (2024)
Approximately 30% of drugs gain at least one new indication after initial approval. Additional sources: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03233-x
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11.
Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO). BIO clinical development success rates 2011-2020. Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO) https://go.bio.org/rs/490-EHZ-999/images/ClinicalDevelopmentSuccessRates2011_2020.pdf (2021)
Phase I duration: 2.3 years average Total time to market (Phase I-III + approval): 10.5 years average Phase transition success rates: Phase I→II: 63.2%, Phase II→III: 30.7%, Phase III→Approval: 58.1% Overall probability of approval from Phase I: 12% Note: Largest publicly available study of clinical trial success rates. Efficacy lag = 10.5 - 2.3 = 8.2 years post-safety verification. Additional sources: https://go.bio.org/rs/490-EHZ-999/images/ClinicalDevelopmentSuccessRates2011_2020.pdf
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12.
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). IHME global burden of disease 2021 (2.88B DALYs, 1.13B YLD). Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/ (2024)
In 2021, global DALYs totaled approximately 2.88 billion, comprising 1.75 billion Years of Life Lost (YLL) and 1.13 billion Years Lived with Disability (YLD). This represents a 13% increase from 2019 (2.55B DALYs), largely attributable to COVID-19 deaths and aging populations. YLD accounts for approximately 39% of total DALYs, reflecting the substantial burden of non-fatal chronic conditions. Additional sources: https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/ | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)00757-8/fulltext | https://www.healthdata.org/research-analysis/about-gbd
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13.
Sinn, M. P. Private industry clinical trial spending estimate. (2025)
Estimated private pharmaceutical and biotech clinical trial spending is approximately $75-90 billion annually, representing roughly 90% of global clinical trial spending.
14.
Sinn, M. P. The Political Dysfunction Tax. https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/political-dysfunction-tax.html (2025) doi:10.5281/zenodo.18603840
Quantifying the gap between current global governance and theoretical maximum welfare, estimating a 31-53% efficiency score and $101 trillion in annual opportunity costs.
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17.
PMC. Only  12% of human interactome targeted. PMC https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10749231/ (2023)
Mapping 350,000+ clinical trials showed that only  12% of the human interactome has ever been targeted by drugs. Additional sources: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10749231/
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18.
Calculated from Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases (2024). Diseases getting first effective treatment each year. Calculated from Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases (2024) https://ojrd.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13023-024-03398-1 (2024)
Under the current system, approximately 10-15 diseases per year receive their FIRST effective treatment. Calculation: 5% of 7,000 rare diseases ( 350) have FDA-approved treatment, accumulated over 40 years of the Orphan Drug Act =  9 rare diseases/year. Adding  5-10 non-rare diseases that get first treatments yields  10-20 total. FDA approves  50 drugs/year, but many are for diseases that already have treatments (me-too drugs, second-line therapies). Only  15 represent truly FIRST treatments for previously untreatable conditions.
19.
PMC. Standard medical research ROI ($20k-$100k/QALY). PMC: Cost-effectiveness Thresholds Used by Study Authors https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10114019/ (1990)
Typical cost-effectiveness thresholds for medical interventions in rich countries range from $50,000 to $150,000 per QALY. The Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) uses a $100,000-$150,000/QALY threshold for value-based pricing. Between 1990-2021, authors increasingly cited $100,000 (47% by 2020-21) or $150,000 (24% by 2020-21) per QALY as benchmarks for cost-effectiveness. Additional sources: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10114019/ | https://icer.org/our-approach/methods-process/cost-effectiveness-the-qaly-and-the-evlyg/
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20.
Tufts CSDD. Cost of drug development.
Various estimates suggest $1.0 - $2.5 billion to bring a new drug from discovery through FDA approval, spread across  10 years. Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development often cited for $1.0 - $2.6 billion/drug. Industry reports (IQVIA, Deloitte) also highlight $2+ billion figures.
21.
Lichtenberg, F. R. How many life-years have new drugs saved? A three-way fixed-effects analysis of 66 diseases in 27 countries, 2000-2013. International Health 11, 403–416 (2019)
Using 3-way fixed-effects methodology (disease-country-year) across 66 diseases in 22 countries, this study estimates that drugs launched after 1981 saved 148.7 million life-years in 2013 alone. The regression coefficients for drug launches 0-11 years prior (beta=-0.031, SE=0.008) and 12+ years prior (beta=-0.057, SE=0.013) on years of life lost are highly significant (p<0.0001). Confidence interval for life-years saved: 79.4M-239.8M (95 percent CI) based on propagated standard errors from Table 2.
22.
Nature Reviews Drug Discovery. Drug trial success rate from phase i to approval. Nature Reviews Drug Discovery: Clinical Success Rates https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2016.136 (2016)
Overall Phase I to approval: 10-12.8% (conventional wisdom  10%, studies show 12.8%) Recent decline: Average LOA now 6.7% for Phase I (2014-2023 data) Leading pharma companies: 14.3% average LOA (range 8-23%) Varies by therapeutic area: Oncology 3.4%, CNS/cardiovascular lowest at Phase III Phase-specific success: Phase I 47-54%, Phase II 28-34%, Phase III 55-70% Note: 12% figure accurate for historical average. Recent data shows decline to 6.7%, with Phase II as primary attrition point (28% success) Additional sources: https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2016.136 | https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6409418/ | https://academic.oup.com/biostatistics/article/20/2/273/4817524
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23.
Research and Markets. Global clinical trials market 2024. Research and Markets https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/04/19/2866012/0/en/Global-Clinical-Trials-Market-Research-Report-2024-An-83-16-Billion-Market-by-2030-AI-Machine-Learning-and-Blockchain-will-Transform-the-Clinical-Trials-Landscape.html (2024)
Global clinical trials market valued at approximately $83 billion in 2024, with projections to reach $83-132 billion by 2030. Additional sources: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/04/19/2866012/0/en/Global-Clinical-Trials-Market-Research-Report-2024-An-83-16-Billion-Market-by-2030-AI-Machine-Learning-and-Blockchain-will-Transform-the-Clinical-Trials-Landscape.html | https://www.precedenceresearch.com/clinical-trials-market
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24.
SofproMed. Phase 3 cost per trial range. SofproMed https://www.sofpromed.com/how-much-does-a-clinical-trial-cost
Phase 3 clinical trials cost between $20 million and $282 million per trial, with significant variation by therapeutic area and trial complexity. Additional sources: https://www.sofpromed.com/how-much-does-a-clinical-trial-cost | https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57126
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25.
Ramsberg, J. & Platt, R. Pragmatic trial cost per patient (median $97). Learning Health Systems https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6508852/ (2018)
Meta-analysis of 108 embedded pragmatic clinical trials (2006-2016). The median cost per patient was $97 (IQR $19–$478), based on 2015 dollars. 25% of trials cost <$19/patient; 10 trials exceeded $1,000/patient. U.S. studies median $187 vs non-U.S. median $27. Additional sources: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6508852/
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26.
Kinch, M. S. & Griesenauer, R. H. Lost medicines: A longer view of the pharmaceutical industry with the potential to reinvigorate discovery. Drug Discovery Today 24, 875–880 (2019)
Research identified 1,600+ medicines available in 1962. The 1950s represented industry high-water mark with >30 new products in five of ten years; this rate would not be replicated until late 1990s. More than half (880) of these medicines were lost following implementation of Kefauver-Harris Amendment. The peak of 1962 would not be seen again until early 21st century. By 2016 number of organizations actively involved in R&D at level not seen since 1914.
27.
Baily, M. N. Pre-1962 drug development costs (baily 1972). Baily (1972) https://samizdathealth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/hlthaff.1.2.6.pdf (1972)
Pre-1962: Average cost per new chemical entity (NCE) was $6.5 million (1980 dollars) Inflation-adjusted to 2024 dollars: $6.5M (1980) ≈ $22.5M (2024), using CPI multiplier of 3.46× Real cost increase (inflation-adjusted): $22.5M (pre-1962) → $2,600M (2024) = 116× increase Note: This represents the most comprehensive academic estimate of pre-1962 drug development costs based on empirical industry data Additional sources: https://samizdathealth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/hlthaff.1.2.6.pdf
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28.
Think by Numbers. Pre-1962 physician-led clinical trials. Think by Numbers: How Many Lives Does FDA Save? https://thinkbynumbers.org/health/how-many-net-lives-does-the-fda-save/ (1966)
Pre-1962: Physicians could report real-world evidence directly 1962 Drug Amendments replaced "premarket notification" with "premarket approval", requiring extensive efficacy testing Impact: New regulatory clampdown reduced new treatment production by 70%; lifespan growth declined from  4 years/decade to  2 years/decade Drug Efficacy Study Implementation (DESI): NAS/NRC evaluated 3,400+ drugs approved 1938-1962 for safety only; reviewed >3,000 products, >16,000 therapeutic claims FDA has had authority to accept real-world evidence since 1962, clarified by 21st Century Cures Act (2016) Note: Specific "144,000 physicians" figure not verified in sources Additional sources: https://thinkbynumbers.org/health/how-many-net-lives-does-the-fda-save/ | https://www.fda.gov/drugs/enforcement-activities-fda/drug-efficacy-study-implementation-desi | http://www.nasonline.org/about-nas/history/archives/collections/des-1966-1969-1.html
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29.
Oren Cass, Manhattan Institute. RECOVERY trial cost per patient. Oren Cass https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs (2023)
The RECOVERY trial, for example, cost only about $500 per patient... By contrast, the median per-patient cost of a pivotal trial for a new therapeutic is around $41,000. Additional sources: https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs
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30.
NHS England; Águas et al. RECOVERY trial global lives saved ( 1 million). NHS England: 1 Million Lives Saved https://www.england.nhs.uk/2021/03/covid-treatment-developed-in-the-nhs-saves-a-million-lives/ (2021)
Dexamethasone saved  1 million lives worldwide (NHS England estimate, March 2021, 9 months after discovery). UK alone: 22,000 lives saved. Methodology: Águas et al. Nature Communications 2021 estimated 650,000 lives (range: 240,000-1,400,000) for July-December 2020 alone, based on RECOVERY trial mortality reductions (36% for ventilated, 18% for oxygen-only patients) applied to global COVID hospitalizations. June 2020 announcement: Dexamethasone reduced deaths by up to 1/3 (ventilated patients), 1/5 (oxygen patients). Impact immediate: Adopted into standard care globally within hours of announcement. Additional sources: https://www.england.nhs.uk/2021/03/covid-treatment-developed-in-the-nhs-saves-a-million-lives/ | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21134-2 | https://pharmaceutical-journal.com/article/news/steroid-has-saved-the-lives-of-one-million-covid-19-patients-worldwide-figures-show | https://www.recoverytrial.net/news/recovery-trial-celebrates-two-year-anniversary-of-life-saving-dexamethasone-result
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31.
Manhattan Institute. RECOVERY trial 82× cost reduction. Manhattan Institute: Slow Costly Trials https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs
RECOVERY trial:  $500 per patient ($20M for 48,000 patients = $417/patient) Typical clinical trial:  $41,000 median per-patient cost Cost reduction:  80-82× cheaper ($41,000 ÷ $500 ≈ 82×) Efficiency: $50 per patient per answer (10 therapeutics tested, 4 effective) Dexamethasone estimated to save >630,000 lives Additional sources: https://manhattan.institute/article/slow-costly-clinical-trials-drag-down-biomedical-breakthroughs | https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9293394/
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32.
ICER. Value per QALY (standard economic value). ICER https://icer.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Reference-Case-4.3.25.pdf (2024)
Standard economic value per QALY: $100,000–$150,000. This is the US and global standard willingness-to-pay threshold for interventions that add costs. Dominant interventions (those that save money while improving health) are favorable regardless of this threshold. Additional sources: https://icer.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Reference-Case-4.3.25.pdf
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33.
FDA Study via NCBI. Trial costs, FDA study. FDA Study via NCBI https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6248200/
Overall, the 138 clinical trials had an estimated median (IQR) cost of $19.0 million ($12.2 million-$33.1 million)... The clinical trials cost a median (IQR) of $41,117 ($31,802-$82,362) per patient. Additional sources: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6248200/
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34.
DOT. DOT value of statistical life ($13.6M). DOT: VSL Guidance 2024 https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-policy/revised-departmental-guidance-on-valuation-of-a-statistical-life-in-economic-analysis (2024)
Current VSL (2024): $13.7 million (updated from $13.6M) Used in cost-benefit analyses for transportation regulations and infrastructure Methodology updated in 2013 guidance, adjusted annually for inflation and real income VSL represents aggregate willingness to pay for safety improvements that reduce fatalities by one Note: DOT has published VSL guidance periodically since 1993. Current $13.7M reflects 2024 inflation/income adjustments Additional sources: https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-policy/revised-departmental-guidance-on-valuation-of-a-statistical-life-in-economic-analysis | https://www.transportation.gov/regulations/economic-values-used-in-analysis
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